When you start the game you are given eight settlers, a wagon, and a set of supplies. Immediately hit pause (the [P] key, unless you have remapped it) so you can assess your situation because each game randomizes what you get.
Seeds
Before looking at anything, you should probably look at your seeds. This will determine what you can grow initially. Simply put, if you have no seeds for food, you should probably restart the game. Open the Resources dialog and click on the Raw tab.
In my example world I got pretty lucky: I five different seeds, three of which are food. If you want to see what an item is good for you can always look it up on the Unofficial Timber and Stone Wiki.
But in short, Carrot, Corn, Potato, Pumpkin, and Turnips are food crops. Currently there is no information on whether the growing characteristics are different for each crop type. For now, just consider the differences are for color. If you do not get seeds for at least two food crops you should probably consider restarting, unless you can immediately start Fishing and there are a lot of Berry Bushes and Boar, Sheep, and Chickens on the map.
Cotton allows you to make Cloth and Beds (Cloth) (which are the best quality). Not having access to cotton seeds at the beginning hurts, but is not crippling. You will have to wait for a Merchant to trade for it or a Migrant to bring it with them. Note, however, that lack of access to Cloth means you need to reserve your Animal Hides for Beds (Straw) and not use them to make Leather.
Wheat is not a food crop, but a utility crop. Wheat allows you to feed Livestock and make Beds (Straw). Note that if you do not get both Wheat Seeds and Cotton Seeds you will have a very hard time as you will not be able to make Beds until you get one of those crops. Unless you get a lot of other highly favorable resources, you should consider restarting.
Flax is interesting in that it can make Cloth, but cannot make a Bed (Cloth) without also having Cotton available. So Flax is a poor-man's substitute for Cotton until you get the real thing.
Given the start above, I can see continuing on with this game as I have three food crops and both Wheat and Flax. My early Beds will be Straw until I can get some Cotton, then I can upgrade to Beds (Cloth). But, this also means that I have to be careful with my Animal Hides, as they can be used for Beds (Straw) and Leather, which can be used to make Leather Armor. (More about that later.)
Tools
The next consideration are the raw resources and the tools that you start with. Put simply, every major tool requires timber and stone to build, so if you lack Wood Logs and an Axe or Raw Stone and a Pickaxe you will not be able to make new tools. Start by looking at the number of Wood Logs and Raw Stone you have. This shows you how much of a cushion you have at the start. In my example world I have no Wood Logs, but I have three Raw Stone, so it is critical that I obtain as much timber as possible, as soon as possible.
In the Resources dialog click on the Tools tab to show all of the hand tools you have to start with. Ensure that you have one Hammer, one Axe, and one Pickaxe. Whatever is missing should be the first item(s) you make a Stone version of.
In my example world I have two Hammers (one being Iron), one Axe, two Pickaxes, and one Hoe (a Copper one). This means that I can initially only assign one Wood Chopper to start cutting that critical timber in order to allow me to start building other tools. As I have three Raw Stone in reserve I can build three stone tools before I run out of resources. So the first three things I build that use Raw Stone must be what I need most. One of the Hammers will go to the Carpenter, leaving me a spare, should I need to build a Wood Pile of Mining Stockpile (which I will need to do on the first day).
Looking through the rest of the Hand Tools I see that I have no Hunting Knife, so anyone I assign as a Forager will not be able to get food from a Boar, Sheep, or Chicken until I build one of those. I also do not start with a Fishing Pole, so there is no need to immediately assign someone as a Fisher. (They will just complain incessantly about needing a Fishing Pole to fish.) You can check under the Crafting tab to see if you start with Rope (I do). If so, you can build a Fishing Pole after you have built your critical tools and have a reserve of Wood Logs.
Another critical resource to look for is a Copper Ingot, found under the Crafting tab. One Copper Ingot is required to make a Food Barrel and you will likely need one by the end of the day. In my example world I do not have one, so getting Copper Ore will be a second priority (after getting sufficient Raw Stone).
It always helps to look at all the other tabs to see what other resources you start with, such as Weapons and Armor, but neither are really a factor in whether you restart the game or not.
At this point you should decide whether you need to restart or not. If you started with a lot of good tools you might keep going despite a bad seed lot, but most likely how you fared with seeds will determine whether you restart or keep going.
Settlers
Now that you have looked at seeds and tools, it is time to look at the people you have been given. Quickly go through the eight settlers and count how many have the Trait: Overeater (it is on the Information screen, which can be displayed by pressing [F1] unless you have remapped your keys). Overeaters eat 50% more food than those without the Trait. How many is too many, requiring a restart? That is hard to say, but if you have already determined that food is going to be tight, due to few food crops, no fishing, or few animals and berry bushes, two or three Overeaters may push you over the edge.
In my example world I have three Overeaters, put I will be pushing on. Without the ability to immediately fish, this will make it tough, but I have three food crops, so it should not be a problem.
After you have taken the Overeater count, it is important that you identify the settlers with the Trait: Clumsy. Clumsy people break their tools more frequently, and possibly fail more often at crafting with a resource loss (although the latter has not been verified). For this reason it is not a good idea to use them for skilled labor, like Engineer, Blacksmith or Carpenter. Strangely, they seem to make better Builders, Foragers, Wood Choppers, and Infantry.
Another important Trait is Quick Learner. Quite simply, a Quick Learner will gain experience faster getting them to higher levels more quickly. Your Blacksmith should be a Quick Learner. The best Blacksmith has both Quick Learner and Hard Worker. In fact, carefully selecting your Blacksmith is probably one of the most important decisions, as crafting metal ingots is one of the more important aspects of the game, after securing your food supply. Metal weapons, armor, and tools increase your survival rate and speeds your progress more than any other factor, save food.
To understand what each of the Traits do, see the Unit page on the wiki. Note that as of version 1.52 some of the Traits are not implemented.
In my example world I set one settler as a Carpenter (Level 5), one as a Farmer (Level 3), one as a Wood Chopper (Level 1), and two as Miners (Levels 3 and 1). The remaining (three) settlers are Foragers (Levels 3, 2, and 1), set to picking berries.
Next time: first orders.
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